Uzbekistan’s unobserved economy exceeded 505 trillion soums in 2024, accounting for 34.8% of the country’s GDP. The largest share of unregistered economic activity was concentrated in agriculture, construction and services.
Uzbekistan’s economy grew by 6.5% in 2024, reaching $115 billion, the president announced at a government meeting. He highlighted successes in attraction of investments across several regions and industries but also criticized certain ministries and district hokims.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development projects Uzbekistan’s GDP to grow by 6.5% in 2024 and 6% in 2025. Analysts anticipate that investment and net exports will drive growth, while limitations may arise from deficits in energy and water resources.
The World Bank revised its forecast for Uzbekistan’s GDP growth this year to 5.1%, up from 4.9% in January. The report also notes that the growth of remittances from labor migrants in Russia may slow down this year, especially for Central Asian and South Caucasian countries.
Central Asian economies have proven resilient to adverse geopolitical headwinds. The EBRD forecasts that the region’s economies will grow by at least 5.2% on average in 2023 and by around 5.4% in 2024.
The IMF says that the economies of Central Asia and the Caucasus were resilient and grew in 2022 despite various shocks, but the growth is expected to slow in 2023, and the region’s outlook is strongly influenced by external factors.
Uzbekistan’s GDP grew by 5.5% in the first quarter of 2023, surpassing forecasts, despite initial concerns due to industrial setbacks from January’s extreme cold weather. Industrial production and construction work demonstrated a significant rebound, contributing to the economic upturn.
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